2012 Talking Points

• Modern Maya people don’t use the Long Count calendar. The calendars they do use (Tzolk’in & Haab) do not end in 2012, nor do they ever end, they cycle.
  http://www.mayan-calendar.com/ancient_tzolkin.html 
  http://www.mayan-calendar.com/ancient_haab.html
  http://maya.nmai.si.edu/2012-resetting-count/maya-opinions-2012  

• There is no evidence that the ancient Maya considered 13.0.0.0.0  (Dec 21, 2012) an end date. The little evidence we have indicates that they would have probably continued counting: Dec 22, 2012 would be 13.0.0.0.1.
  http://www.mayan-calendar.com/ancient_longcount.html 
  http://www.famsi.org/research/vanstone/2012/2012Part2.pdf 
  
  

A drawing of the 13th Bak’tun Long Count date as it might have been depicted by an ancient Maya scribe. Image Credit: Mark Van Stone.

• Global Warming is occurring, but its effects are felt over many years and not in any single year.
  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html

• Incidents of extreme weather (tornadoes, floods, tropical cyclones, fire storms, etc.) show differing trends based on region and methods of observing them. There are no trends to indicate that anything globally catastrophic will happen in 2012, or any specific year for that matter. There are gradual changes over decades of time. Dangerous weather can happen anywhere in any year, so it is always wise to be prepared for it.
  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-3-3.html 
  http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E10.html
  http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html
  http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G3.html
  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-8-3.html
  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-8-4.html
  http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-8-5.html

• There have been no trends in geologic activity in recent decades. There is an average of 1 earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater every year, with millions of smaller quakes happening all the time along fault lines. There is also an average of 56 active volcanoes per year, with no indication of any real trends. Those living in active fault zones should always be prepared for an emergency. 
  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
  http://www.volcano.si.edu/education/questions/index.cfm?faq=06

• Meteors do impact the Earth. Major impacts have occurred in the past, and will occur in the future. However, there are no known meteor hazards for the immediate future.
  http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/index.html

• The magnetic poles of Earth have shifted many times in the past, with no apparent negative effects on life. Such shifts happen irregularly and over thousands of years. There are but hints of evidence that another shift may be occurring or beginning. But, it will happen over a long span of time with likely little effect on us.
  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/timeline.html
  http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/stripes.html
  http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/developing.html

• The Sun’s cycle of magnetic activity (the sunspot cycle) is expected to peak in 2013 (not 2012). Most big solar storms typically happen after the peak. This cycle is predicted to be the weakest in a hundred years, however. So while solar storms and space weather affect our space-age technology, we can expect a calmer upcoming solar maximum than recently past ones. The Sun has been producing these storms for billions of years and Earth has survived them all.
  http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

An illustration (not drawn to scale) of a coronal mass ejection being launched from the Sun toward Earth (which is enveloped by its protective magnetic field). Image Credit: Steele Hill/NASA

• No mysterious planet X has been discovered lurking in the outer Solar System ready to begin a journey of mayhem in 2012.
  http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/news/wise20110218.html http://www.mikebrownsplanets.com/2008/03/planet-x-uncovered-again.html

• Gamma Ray Bursts are the violent deaths of massive stars or the collisions of neutron stars. They happen about once per day somewhere in the Universe. To be dangerous to Earth one has to happen in our Galaxy and the beam of gamma rays in such an event needs to be pointed directly at us. The odds of such an event occurring in any given year are very low: about 1 in 270 million. 
  http://swift.sonoma.edu/about_swift/grbs.html
  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/gamma/milkyway.html

• The planets of our Solar System will not all align in 2012, nor have they recently or will they in the near future. But if such an alignment were to occur, the gravitational effects would be utterly insignificant. 
  http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planets.html 

• There is no alignment with the center of the Galaxy, and again if there were, the gravitational effects would be totally negligible. The appearance of the Sun within the Galaxy is not rare, it happens twice every year. The appearance of the Sun within the Galaxy during Solstice is a little more rare, but not remarkably so. But solstice has no special gravitational or electromagnetic significance. 
  http://www.calendarinthesky.org/Articles/2012Science/2012ScicenceArticleView/tabid/144/ArticleId/9/The-Great-Galactic-Alignment-of-2012.aspx